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Showing posts with label Census. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Census. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Daily Nation:�- Opinion�|Somalis should not be harshly judged

Daily Nation:�- Opinion�|Somalis should not be harshly judged

By AHEMEDNASIR ABDULLAHI
Posted Saturday, September 4 2010 at 18:31
IN SUMMARY
  • Census: Reasons given for cancelling results in the North are distasteful and insolent
This is not something peculiar to Somalis in Kenya. It happens in many countries all over the world. It is the norm in Sudan, Morocco, Turkey, Syria, Iran, Russia, China and Iraq among others.
In these countries, a section of a country’s population that is ethnically distinct from the rest has their numerical strength suppressed in national census. Tinkering with numbers of minorities is an age-old ritual of undemocratic governments.
The Sudan government estimates the population of the South to be half the figure the South government maintains as the correct figure. Morocco historically suppresses the population figures of the Sahrawi people.
The governments of Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq have a field day with the population of their Kurd citizens. The Kenyan government, when it comes to the Somali population, is in good company.
Historically, the true population of ethnic communities that aspired for separate statehood is a matter of national security. Governments suppress the population figures of such communities in absolute discretion.
The reasons advanced by Planning minister Wycliffe Oparanya for cancelling the census results are distasteful and insolent. They are so one-dimensional that I hope it is not a true reflection of his competence for the job he holds.
He insults our intelligence when he claims that elders refused to answer questions and, instead, forcefully grabbed the census documents and proceeded to fill in information.
Oparanya wants Kenyans to believe that, just for the census purposes, elderly Somalis in Northern Kenya have suddenly become literate. Don’t also fall for his remarks on the floor of the House that it is principally because the ratio of women to men was found to be 3 to 1 that government cancelled the results.
How can one take seriously a national census that states that Somalis outside North Eastern Province are a mere 70,000? Don’t we have triple that number just in Eastleigh?
It was an open secret for the past eight months that the Office of the President was uncomfortable with the census figure from the North. This matter was variously discussed by security agents and a decision reached that the lesser evil was to cancel the census figures.
All three presidents of Kenya since independence have played significant roles in shaping the destiny of the Somali community in the country. No one could really blame Jomo Kenyatta for the inability to forget the secession movement in the north of the country.
The Kenyatta government’s policy was that Somalis were not real citizens of Kenya. He showed this in actions and in deed. Daniel Moi was quite different. Despite his hawkish attitude as vice-president, as president, Moi turned full circle.
He embraced the community as Kenyans and integrated both the region and its inhabitants into mainstream Kenya. He greatly improved the education, social and economic status of the community.
Whether by design or default, the Office of the President has since 2003 engaged in activities that specifically target members of the Somali community. These include indiscriminate security raids, denial of identity cards and passports and state orchestrated xenophobic propaganda.
A year ago, the Office of the President ordered the provincial administration to tally the properties owned by the Somali community in major towns. The census cancellation is merely the other side of that coin.
(Taken From The Daily Nation)

Monday, September 6, 2010

Billow Kerrow destroys Oparanya.

The Standard | Online Edition :: Census circus and the need to independently audit results





Published on



Billow Kerrow
Planning Minister Wycliffe Oparanya never strikes me as an astute professional who gets his sums right. He displays scanty regard for integrity of his numbers, and much less the inconsistency of his statements. The 2009 census exposed his general lack of diligence.
The North Eastern Province (NEP) and Somali numbers reveal the census results were anything but factual. The minister cancelled most of NEP results on grounds that the "rate of increase is higher than the population dynamics would support" and that the "age and sex profiles deviate from the norm". In simple terms, he stated the population increase in NEP was higher than the birth and death rates statistics, and that "men outnumbered women three times". The minister’s ignorance about this region drives him to make unwitty reference to birth and death statistics even as the household survey he published revealed that less than 10 per cent of women deliver in hospitals in that region due to very low coverage of health facilities. No hospital has cold room facilities in its mortuary, and with the relatively hot climate, the dead are immediately buried. Consequently, there are insignificant records of births and deaths to talk about.
The results he published do not reveal that men far out-number women. In all these districts, the ratio is indeed similar to that in other regions, and in the worst case it was 55 to 45. He also told the media 140 per cent increase in the population in NEP occurred because elderly residents refused to respond to the census questions for cultural reasons and "would instead grab the questionnaire and fill it in themselves" leading to inaccuracies. This is not true.
The same census revealed that about 90 per cent of the residents of the region is illiterate. How then could such people fill in the complicated census forms that even we professionals could not fill in by ourselves? Since all census officials in the region had security, how come no one was arrested for such violations? And since the chaos was widespread, why was not a single incident reported at the time, either in the media, or at the police stations? Who has since been arrested in the year-long investigation? Curiously, how did the clerks accept back the forms from the ‘unruly’ residents? And if it happened in NEP, could it not have occurred elsewhere too?
In his speech, the minister acknowledged "complex logistics for enumeration of pastoralists communities" among other things. Had the minister studied the results of previous census in the region, he would discover their population trends are dissimilar to the national pattern. For instance, population of NEP in 1979 census was 374,000. Ten years later in 1989, it decreased to 371,000 even as the national average rose by 35 per cent. And in 1999, it jumped to 962,000, almost 160 per cent. The Government never cancelled these results, and attributed it to the nomadic culture of the pastoralists. The results also put the Somali population, whom he derogatively refers to as "Kenyan Somali" at 2.3 million, the same as that of NEP. Where are the hundreds of thousands of Somalis who live in Nairobi, Mombasa, and other parts of Kenya? Did he find their high number unpalatable, and subsume them into one of the other Kenya tribes? Globally, census must promote participation by all the population. Protection of the integrity of the census data is also crucial for its credibility. As early as September last year, the media were awash with population numbers of Somalis, and how the Government was concerned about the huge increase in their population. This premature data release indicates motivation to manipulate the outcome of the census. There is need to independently audit the census results if we are to believe the circus by this minister.
(STANDARD MEDIA GROUP)

Bringing levity to the census

A Comprehensive Breakdown of NEP's Census Results

The disgraced Planning Minister Wycliffe Oparanya, released Kenya's census results after 12 months of severe doctoring and manipulation of data. If we are to take his widely discredited and fraudulent figures at face value, here is a breakdown of the census data with regards to NEP province:


 Mandera is the most populous district in the Province with a 1,025,756 people. {Male 559,943  Female 465,813}. Its also ranked as the tenth most populous county in the entire nation.

Mandera Central happens to be the fourth most populated constituencies in the country with 417,294 residents. Congrats!



SANITATION; MODE as a % of households
Septic tank: 0.4
Cess pool   ; 0.1

Goats           ;7,886,586
Camels         :1,700,893
Donkeys       :382,345
Pigs              :68  Seriously, who own these?
Chicken        :422,899
Comm Chick :71,313
Bee hives     :59,189

Ownership of Household Assets (as %)
Radio: 56.1
TV     :3.5
Mobile: 28.8
Landline:0.4
Computer: 0.6

The entire poplution of Kenyan Somalis is   2,385,572

<span>Census results for five constituencies have been nullified by the incompetent minister. These include</span>



Feel free to point out any errors and inconsistencies. I have every intention of compiling them, then buy an ad page in the Standard and the Daily Nation.

What the cancelled census results mean for NEP.

By now everybody knows that this fascist petulant coalition government has decided to throw out census results from five constituencies in NEP. The ramification of this ill advised decision by the incompetent minister are far reaching and could severely curtail the influence of Somalis in all level of governance in the coming decades. It would also rob us of well deserved resources for another generation, maybe  more.

Census results are going to be used by the newly formed Interim Independent Boundaries Review Commission to draw up Kenya's electoral map . By cancelling these results especially in the most populous parts of our province on intellectually dishonest grounds, this disgraced minister wants to deprive the people of NEP representation in the National Assembly come 2012.

Calculations derived from provisions included in the new constitution state that in sparsely populated regions, a constituency should have a population of between 93,197 and 170,079 people. Now if we use these figures to determine the number of new constituencies NEP should get, you'll be see why 'elites' are worried about our growing influence.

Lets breakdown & crunch the numbers for the five constituencies that were cancelled using the mean aggregate of the figures stipulated in the new constitution.
Mandera Central= 4 constituencies
Mandera West    = 3 constituencies
Mandera East     =  3 constituencies
Wajir        East     =  2  " "
Lagdera               =   2 "  "
Dujis                     =   3 "  "

Figures for Fafi, Wajir South, Wajir North, Wajir West and  Ijara have not been officially released yet but we all know atleast one of these constituencies has a population of over 200K hence  2/3 more constituencies to our impressive tally.   
After u add up the numbers, we will end up having between 22-25 constituencies in our province.  Thats what they want to take away from us. 
We have to stand up to this bullying and demand whats rightfully ours.

HAKI YETU! HAKI YETU! HAKI YETU!