Google Searches for the terms "Somali" "War" and "Terror" in Kenya Since 2010

I decided to look up the relative aggregate search popularity of the terms "Somali","War" and "Terror" in Kenya.

Here is the Graphic

Why Kenya's Foray into Somalia is Counterproductive and Destined to Fail

 It remains to be seen whether Kenya will stay in Somalia for any considerable length of time but its pretty obvious this latest military move is nothing more than a knee-jerk reaction.

Elements in Somalia whether allied with the dreaded Al-Shabab or profiteering bandits have been relentlessly provoking Kenya by violating its territory and staging brazen daylight kidnappings. It is natural for anyone to react violently when tested by a bully. However, what needs discussion here is whether Kenya's inexperienced military with its antiquated hardware has any long term plans for combating the Al-Shabab threat.

A quick bombing raid of outlying Somali villages will not do away with the threat that is posed by Al-shabab. Neither will a prolonged ground combat which will only serve as a recruiting blitz for the terrorist movement. We all know how antagonistic Somalis are to any form of foreign occupation; even from what has been up to now a benevolent neighbour.

In an era of near economic crisis, with inflation this high and the shilling tanking at rates reminiscent of the Zimbabwean dollar, getting bogged down in a guerrilla war with an entrenched and highly mobile enemy is nothing more than inviting disaster.


The unintended consequence of this military campaign might be forcing the drought battered population into the arms of the Shabab all over again. Also, if Kenya's intentions were to protect its tourism, suicide bombings in Nairobi and Mombasa will do not much to encourage visitors to come to Kenya.
Given how amateur and corruptible our security and intelligence apparatuses are, the Shabab will be able to attack within Kenya with significant ease.

Kenya's own indigenous Somali population will also become the subject of unnecessary vilification and will be seen by the rest of the country as having divided loyalties, wrongly of course.

So What is the best answer in this scenario? Certainly its not just sitting back while your citizens are terrorized by foreign thugs.

My own thinking is that Kenya should beef up security around its border with Somalia and improve its intelligence gathering. Surgical strikes against militant groups suspected of being behind kidnappings, covert operations and commando raids within Somalia to kill the leaders of the bandits/terrorist groups that are behind cross-border raids into Kenya and closing up all revenue streams coming to Al-Shabab through money laundered into Kenya.

Al-Shabab is an evil organization that has perveted Islam and Somali culture to cause indescribable pain and suffering but its not an entity that Kenya alone can eradicate.

For Somali Speakers, here is a lecture by Sh. Umal about the group

Uneducated Ogadenis

It turns out that Kenya is run by insufficiently educated batshit civil servants. But more worrying is the fact that there are only four (yes, 4) Ogadenians with University degrees in the civil service making for a whopping 0.00000921% of the entire body according to an audit done by the government.

The main take away from the audit is that Kenya is a mafia state where cronyism and nepotism pervade all facets of life and commerce. This is illustrated by the sheer dominance of Kikuyus and Kalenjins in public sector empoyment and the cyclical rise in their hiring as the presidency changed hands between men with allegiance to these two tribes.

Garissa's  lack of  marquee schools, assiduous students and politicians eager to promote education makes me all the more skeptical that this trend will self correct in the long run. For all its new found 'wealth,' Garissa has never been synonymous with producing scholars, public thinkers or political heavy weights. Most influential Somali Kenyans mainly hail from Mandera and to a lesser extent Wajir.

We on other hand are famous for sending an illiterate snake-oil-salesman and a self-promoting gangster to parliament for the last three and half decades.

That said, what needs greater discussion is whether this points to a disinterest in education by Ogadenians or a disinclination towards seeking employment in the public sector? Is the representation of educated Garissians in the private sector greater than in the PSC? These are questions that need your input..(i.e the reader) but I personally have a hard time coming up with names of  successful businessmen whose roots are in Garissa and whose wealth is not tainted by corruption and crony capitalism.

Oh, and don't mention Mahat Kunow...He is illiterate and his philanthropy, while admirable, is deeply flawed because it entirely focuses on missionary style Madrassas and completely sidelines formal education.

The Geography of Peace: Global Peace Index

Kenya improved its ranking in the Global Peace Index by 9 positions over last year coming in at position 111/153. Tanzania, which has consistently ranked as the most peaceful nation in the region is at position 56/153, Uganda came in at 96 while Somalia was ranked at the bottom as the least peaceful nation in the world (153/153).

The Atlantic's Richard Florida has a great piece on this, going on to compare the GPI rankings to a range of other social, economic and demographic factors. You can read it here

The map below charts the Global Peace Index (GPI) scores for 153 countries worldwide. The GPI is based on 25 separate indicators of internal and external conflict, including wars and external conflicts, deaths from external conflicts, militarization, weapons exports, homicides, access to weapons, violent political demonstrations, prison populations, and police presence. 

 

The Ten most peaceful nations in the world are:

RANK	COUNTRY	SCORE
1	Iceland	1.148
2	New Zealand	1.279
3	Japan	1.287
4	Denmark	1.289
5	Czech Republic	1.320
6	Austria	1.337
7	Finland	1.352
8	Canada	1.355
9	Norway	1.356
10	Slovenia	1.358

Also, here are the rankings of a few nations in the region that I'm sure some of you would like to know.

Kenya     111/153
Ethiopia  131/153
Uganda   096/153
Tanzania 056/153
Eritrea    104/153
Somalia  153/153
Rwanda  099/153

In summary, Western Europe is the most peaceful region in the world while Sub-Saharan Africa is the least peaceful. Generally speaking, affluence and peace are closely correlated which explains why rich Nordic countries consistently rank as the most peaceful, most equal and happiest in the world.

To play around with interactive map,  go here.

Kenyans ranked among the Saddest People in the World.

   Gallup released its global "wellbeing" survey yesterday and unsurprisingly Kenyans were ranked among the saddest in the world. Much to my consternation, Djibouti and Somali Land were found to be much happier than their other IGAD counterparts.

Only 6 percent of Kenyans are reported to be thriving and happy with their lives. A whopping 80% are struggling to get by while a further 16% are living in agony. 60% of Kenyans find it hard to put food on the table.

While the correlation between income and happiness has long been a subject of philosophical interest and hasn't been conclusively determined to be true or false, its not surprising that the happiest people in the world live in rich  Denmark (72%), Sweden (69%) and Canada (69%) respectively, while the unhappiest earthlings hail from poverty stricken nations in Sub-Saharan Africa.

With the current flux Kenyan politics is in, I don't think such surveys will bear important policy implications, therefore, maybe, just maybe, inflationary pressures will shift the human psychology of the average Kenyan and make him/her go 'Tunisian' over our inept leaders

My personal thinking is: happiness has a lot to do with spirituality and a person's sense of belonging, which would explain why more Somali Landers and Djiboutians are happier than Kenyans, Ugandans and Tanzanians.

Here are the countries where a majority of the people are happy

And now the countries where less than 1 in 4 is happy

Of Blasts, xenophobia and Somali victimhood mentality

  The bus blast that occurred in Nairobi on Monday night will mean another field day for xenophobes and conspiracy theorists alike. They'll use this incident to ratchet up the volume of their hate speech and I-told-you-so campaign mantra. The police might respond in one of their trade mark "human fishing" expeditions in Eastleigh. No facts will stand in their way including the fact that Police have identified Albert Mulanda, a Tanzanian national, as the sole person behind the heinous act  that took the lives of two people, including the bomber himself, in River Road yesterday. While I wouldn't write off the participation of terror groups in organizing the act, I'll let the semi-professional police do their work and connect the dots. That said, The Kenyan fearfully paranoid mindset should not be whipped into a terrified frenzy by hyping this latest attack. Turning Somalis into bogeyman for all the violence that is going on in the region will further destabilize the country. Any subsequent monumental over reaction to the verbal bluster of Al-shabab might lead to disastrous consequences for Kenya's foreign policy, safety and internal cohesion.

 While this incident might be used by xenophobic local commentators and policemen who are interested in lining their pockets with some cash for Christmas shopping, Somalis should come out swinging against this act, condemn it and offer the police all the help they can. At the very least this will establish a degree of good will between law enforcement and the larger Somali community.Instead of offering ourselves at the alter of self martyrdom and waiting for people to take pity on us, you and I, and other whose ideas overlap with ours should take on the system in defense of our people.

I do not want to enter a new realm that I do not understand very well and thus end up confusing my readers instead of enlightening them. Therefore, I'll spare you anymore of my off the cuff platitudes and poor substances and urge you to write to me what you think we can do change the  Somali alienation that is taking hold in Kenya.

 Alshabab is now holding any Somali anywhere hostage, more so, Somali Kenyans who fall victims to police swoops anytime such acts take place in Kenya.

Wayaha Cusub on CNN

Lead Rapper for the Wayaha Cusub band talks to CNN's inside Africa. The group has recently got funding from the US High commission in Kenya to make Anti-Alshabab songs.

Kenya's Interests are better served if it says Out Of Somalia

By Samir H


   A bunch of sisyphus morons in the kenyan cabinet have been cheerleading efforts to catalyse the epic confirmation of Kenya as a failed state. These quacks have learnt the art of prophesising from Dick cheney's school of fear mongering. They are being used by the United States of America to become a quassi-permanent occupiers of Somalia. The guilty pleasure of their existence is simple and understandable.In their galactic appetite for self-enriching ventures they will stop at nothing even if it means sending the countries children to a senseless war in a neighbouring country. Everytime we belly up to their filthy inarticulate utterances, they serve us nothing but comedy. These miscreants that are drumming up for war are pawns being used by America in a larger geo-political power game. That the united states has reasons for being scared of alleged terrorists taking over a major oceanic transport hub and the dangers they pose to the strategic interests of America is not suprising but for Kenya to volunteer itself to do the dirty job for some financial and military backing is mindnumbing.

With our antique military facilities and the history of foreign intervention in Somalia, Kenya is better adviced to keep its troops in Kenya. These snake-oil-salesmen tend to forget Black hawk down and the ethiopian defeat but maybe these moronic minions are mental dwarfs. Their tone deaf statements smell of selective amnesia. After leading to the deaths of more than a thousand people a year and a half ago they want to raise up religiouis and ethnic tension in the country again. How will a third of the country's population that is muslim react to kenya occupying an an islamic nation? why do we have to invite terror and bombings to our streets? Did we forget the 98 bomings? Are we forgetting how porous our bordes are with somalia and the ease with which these guys can wreck havoc in Nairobi? Are we forgetting the financial and economic implications of such attacks.God forbid they happen.

These politicians want to hoax the kenyan people to a war that can never be won. A war that will morally and financial bankrupt this nation. Maybe then the economy will stop teetering on the edge of collapse and go down the toilet for good. These self abnigating, perenially thirsty vampires are hyping up paranoid delusions about the dangers Alshabab posses to the horn of africa.

we will celebrate Dec 2012 as a soul wrenching day. A day when we will finally get rid of ur faithless stewardship of this country and bring it up from the abyss you have placed us into. These slimy slugs masquerading as politicians are simply fascists who want to start profiteering rings from a war that is better off left to those who knw and want to fight it.

It is time we put these people in the garbage can and started over again as a country because the past 40yrs were a sham. The current petulant presidency and the formenting graft that continues unabated should be the catalyst for a grassroots uprising. Our parliament has turned into Comedy audition show where guys mudling and hogwash one another but where real questioned aren't asked. Kenya is becoming a failed state under all indications and getting into war with somalia will finally put the doomed stamp to underscore that point.
Lets leave this war for the Americans to fight it.